Key Takeaways:
- The U.S. new-vehicle SAAR is expected to finish near 16.1 million in June 2026, marking four straight months of consistency despite higher gas prices, with Cox Automotive holding the full-year forecast at 15.8 million units.
- First-half 2026 new-vehicle sales are tracking 3.6% lower year over year, but the decline reflects a strong 2025 comparison rather than weakening demand, with affordability driven more by household finances than by vehicle prices.
- General Motors leads first-half sales but faces a narrowing gap with Toyota of less than 100,000 units, while Ford and Tesla post double-digit declines and Stellantis rebounds nearly 5%.
Cox Automotive convened its 8th annual Mid-Year Review on June 24, 2026, bringing together its Economic and Industry Insights team to assess how the U.S. auto industry performed through the first half of the year. The picture that emerged is one of surprising resilience. Even as consumers absorbed an energy shock and continuing geopolitical tension, the new-vehicle market held its ground.
Uncertainty Remains the Auto Industry’s Arch Enemy
Since the first Cox Mid-Year Review in 2019, the auto industry has weathered a remarkable amount of shock. A global pandemic gave way to chip and inventory shortages. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. A banking scare in 2023 was followed by tariffs in 2025. Now a conflict in the Middle East has driven a global energy shock through the economy.
“Uncertainty is the auto industry’s arch enemy,” said Mark Schirmer, Director, Corporate Communications at Cox. “Uncertainty drags down consumer sentiment. And consumer sentiment is the fuel the auto industry runs on.”
That dynamic also showed up clearly in dealer sentiment data. Overall dealer sentiment rose to 43 in the second quarter, a second consecutive gain driven by a strong spring selling season, though it remained below the neutral threshold of 50. The future market index fell sharply from 56 in the first quarter to 47 in the second, signaling that dealers expect conditions to weaken. More than half of dealers (55%) cited the economy as the top factor holding back business.
Vehicle Affordability Is a Continuing Challenge
Affordability dominated the conversation, but Cox Automotive economists offered a nuanced view. The real story is the erosion of purchasing power. Over the last five years, consumer price inflation has averaged 4.9% each year, compounding the cost of nearly everything Americans buy. At its peak this year, U.S. consumers were spending an additional $561 million per day on fuel.
The vehicle price itself is less of a villain than headlines suggest. Executive Analyst Erin Keating illustrated this with the Honda CR-V LX. The same model cost roughly $28,000 in 2016 and about $39,000 in 2026. Adjusted for inflation, the 2016 car should cost about $38,300 today, nearly identical to the actual $38,700 price.
“And look at what that money buys now,” said Keating. “The 2016 car had a five-inch screen, no CarPlay, no driver assist, a naturally aspirated engine. The 2026 version is turbocharged, nine-inch touchscreen, wireless CarPlay, Honda Sensing standard on every trim, adaptive cruise, push-button start. It’s a genuinely better car and in real dollars, it costs about the same.”
The Cox Automotive Vehicle Affordability Index reinforces the point. In 2016, buying a new car took 33.7 weeks of median household income. Today it takes 34.9 weeks, a change of just 1.2 weeks over an entire decade, even though the monthly payment jumped 60%. The lever that moved the payment was interest rates, which climbed from about 6.5% to 9.5%, not the vehicle’s price.
Mid-Year Sales Performance Shows Stability
The June SAAR is expected to finish near 16.1 million, roughly in line with March, April and May. This stretch of consistency is unusual given recent volatility and elevated energy prices. Vehicle buyers have largely shrugged off the latest issues, with sales holding steady through the spring and into summer.
After a weak, weather-impacted first quarter, the second quarter delivered a much stronger performance, with the SAAR up more than 4%. Even so, first-half 2026 sales are tracking 3.6% lower than the first half of 2025.
The most affordable segments priced under $40,000, including compact cars and subcompact SUVs, declined this year as high interest rates and prices strained budgets. Several premium segments also softened. The winners were midsize cars, midsize trucks and midsize SUVs.
“As we stated in March – Mid is In – and now in June – Mid is Still In,” said Charlie Chesbrough, Senior Economist. “These buyer trends may be showing a shift towards value in the marketplace. Affordability concerns and economic uncertainty may be leading more affluent segments to lose their customers to the more practical. And, high prices may be leading customers of the most affordable segments to pull-back from buying new vehicles and push them into the used market.”
OEM Performance: Winners and Losers in the First Half of 2026
General Motors remains the volume leader through the first half, but its position is under pressure. GM is expected to finish the second quarter with around 705,000 vehicles, down 5.1% year over year, while first-half sales track 7.2% lower. All GM brands posted declines, led by Buick and Cadillac, each down more than 20%.
In comparison, Toyota’s second-quarter sales are expected to rise 18.8% from the first quarter, powered by the redesigned 4Runner and hybrid Camry. That momentum narrowed the gap with GM to less than 100,000 units, setting up a potential change in first place by year-end.
Performance elsewhere was mixed:
- Hyundai delivered steady gains, with first-half market share up 0.7 percentage points, led by Kia and Genesis.
- Stellantis rebounded with volume up 4.8%, reversing several years of share decline thanks to the redesigned Ram truck and Jeep Grand Wagoneer.
- Ford faced a difficult year, with first-half sales expected to fall 10.3% on losses from the F-Series and the discontinued Escape.
- Tesla saw volumes drop 14.6% amid lost federal subsidies, fewer new products and growing competition from off-lease used Model 3 and Model Y vehicles.
The Cox Automotive Full-Year Forecast
The Cox Automotive full-year forecast remains unchanged at 15.8 million units, a 2.9% decline from 2025. That decline is more a function of last year’s better-than-anticipated performance than a meaningful change in demand. Retail sales are projected at 12.9 million units, with fleet sales at 2.9 million units.
Assuming no major policy shocks, the new-vehicle market is expected to keep fluctuating in the high-15 to low-16 million range through the rest of the year. There are reasons for cautious optimism. Gas prices have fallen more than 50 cents per gallon nationwide, suggesting the peak of energy-driven inflation may have passed, and the Federal Reserve has signaled a firm focus on controling inflation.
“We don’t know yet what they will do, but it appears they are very committed to reining in inflation,” said Stephanie Valdez Streaty, Director, Industry Insights. “If we start to see better trends on that front, with the Fed focused on providing relief to US consumers, that could be a VERY welcome and positive impact on our economy. The data has been gloomy, but automotive sales have remained resilient, and there seems to be a glow of light at the end of the tunnel.”
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