Electric vehicle (EV) sales in the U.S. are expected to grow by 11 percent year-over-year in the third quarter, which would reach record highs for both volume and market share when final numbers are announced, according to new estimates from Kelley Blue Book (KBB).
KBB is forecasting 346,309 EVs were sold in Q3 2024, a five percent increase from the second quarter as share of sales in hit 8.9 percent in quarter three, the highest level recorded and an increase from 7.8 percent in a year earlier.
“While year-over-year growth has slowed, EV sales in the U.S. continue to march higher,” said Stephanie Valdez Streaty, director of industry insights at Cox Automotive, in a statement released with the forecast. “The growth is being fueled in part by incentives and discounts; but as more affordable EVs enter the market and infrastructure improves, we can expect even greater adoption in the coming years.”
Cybertruck, Incentives and Discounts
Those incentives and discounts for EV were elevated in the last quarter, which Cox officials opined helped fuel higher sales. In Q3, incentives averaged more than 12 percent of the average transaction price (ATP), much higher than the industry-wide average of approximately seven percent.
The “leasing loophole” was generously applied, allowing all EV buyers to qualify for government-supported incentives. Electric vehicle prices were higher by less than one percent year-over-year for the quarter as the average price paid was just over $57,000, a premium of approximately 19 percent compared to the industry-wide ATP of $48,000.
After seeing sales fall year over year in the first half, market leader Tesla returned to growth mode with sales up 6.6 percent in the last quarter, thanks mostly to the newly introduced Cybertruck. Despite a six-figure price tag—average transaction price in September was north of $116,000—more than 16,000 Cybertrucks were sold for the months of July, August and September. KBB noted Cybertruck outsold every other available EV except for two—Tesla’s Model Y and 3.
GM Sales up Over 50%
General Motors EV sales jumped significantly in Q3, up nearly 60 percent to 32,095. While still a distant second to market leader Tesla, GM improved its standing in the EV race thanks to strong sales from three of its four core brands – Cadillac, Chevrolet and GMC. Hyundai Motor Group fell behind GM and into third place, with sales generally flat year over year at 29,609.
Ford was fourth in sales with 23,509, and Honda and Acura contributed more than 15,000 EV sales in the quarter, thanks to two new models. A year ago, American Honda EV sales were zero.
Cox Automotive had predicted 2024 to be a “year of more” for EVs in the U.S.—more products, sales, discounting, and curious buyers jumping into the fray. With improving infrastructure, far more choices, and excellent deals to be had, the Cox analysis believe a 10 percent share of the U.S. markets is attainable by the end of the year.
