The new vehicle market is cooling down as it heads into the final quarter of the year. According to recent analysis from Cox Automotive, new vehicle inventory levels increased while sales pace slowed in September, pushing the days’ supply to its highest point since the first quarter. This shift, combined with the growing presence of new model-year vehicles, is creating a dynamic environment as we reach the holiday season.
Inventory Levels Climb Higher
At the start of October, the total number of new vehicles on dealer lots across the U.S. reached 2.87 million units. This represents a 4.8 percent increase from the previous month and is higher than the 2.71 million vehicles available at the same time last year. Inventory levels have been steadily climbing since late spring, recovering from a low point at the end of May.
This growth in available stock is directly linked to a slowdown in sales during the last two weeks of September. As fewer vehicles moved off the lots, the days’ supply rose to 84 days. This is up from 78 days a month earlier and marks a 7.2 percent month-over-month increase. The current 84-day supply suggests that dealers have more cushion than they have had in months, but it also points to softening consumer demand.
A Market-Wide Slowdown
The trend of rising inventory was not isolated to only a few brands. The majority of automakers started October with more available stock than the month before. Notably, nearly half of all brands had a days’ supply of over 100 days, indicating a widespread sales slowdown.
Even brands that have traditionally had very quick turnaround times, like Toyota and Honda, were not immune. Both saw their sales slow in September, leading to increases in their days’ supply. Toyota’s inventory jumped by more than 10 percent month-over-month, while Honda’s supply increased by nearly 18 percent. In contrast, a few luxury brands, including Cadillac, Porsche, and Mercedes-Benz, managed to buck the trend and lower their days’ supply for the month.
New Models Drive Prices Up
As dealers receive more model-year 2026 vehicles, the average price of new cars is trending upward. At the beginning of October, these new models made up roughly 41 percent of all available new vehicles, a significant jump from 25 percent at the start of September. This influx of fresh, and often more expensive, models pushed the average listing price for a new vehicle to $49,394. This is a 1.6 percent increase from the previous month and a 3.6 percent rise year-over-year.
This trend is consistent with historical patterns, as vehicle prices typically peak in the final months of the year due to a large mix of luxury and high-end models. In fact, the average transaction price for vehicles sold in September surpassed $50,000 for the first time ever.
Future Outlook
Cox Automotive anticipates that the sales pace will continue to cool in Q4. Higher retail prices and the recent expiration of federal EV incentives are expected to temper consumer demand. With slower sales, inventory levels and days’ supply are likely to climb further. This will potentially lead to an increase in manufacturer incentives as automakers look to stimulate sales and manage their growing inventory.
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