U.S. light-vehicle sales in September are forecast for a calendar-induced decline of approximately 12 percent year-over-year on a volume estimate of 1.18 million units, according to S&P Global Mobility.

If correct, S&P officials see this as translating to a seasonally adjusted rate (SAAR) of 16.0 million units, a notable bump from the 15.2 million unit reading in August and sustaining a volatile pattern for this monthly metric since May. The month-to-month volatility in the SAAR reading reflects the current state of auto demand.

Chris Hopson, principal analyst at S&P Global Mobility observed that “new vehicle sales remain stuck in neutral.”

“The overall tenor of the auto demand environment remains one of consistent, but unmotivated volume levels as consumers in the market continue to be pressured by high interest rates and slow-to-recede vehicle prices, which are translating to high monthly payments,” said Hopson in a press statement with the projections.

Inventory Building?

Despite increasing to 2.88 million units at the end of August, dealer advertised inventory in the U.S. has largely leveled out since the spring.

“With 2025 model year vehicles now becoming available at an increased rate (up 65 percent vs. July), pressure to sell down remaining stock of 2024 model year vehicles will begin to mount,” stated Matt Trommer, associate director of product at S&P Global Mobility.

Continued advances in inventories and incentives are expected, but given reports of some automakers culling output expectations for the remainder of the year, affordability issues are expected to remain stubbornly sticky even as the first interest rate cut was made.

In its September 2024 forecast update, S&P Global Mobility has lowered its calendar year 2024 U.S. sales outlook to 15.9 million units, down from a previous projection of 16.0 million units and the light vehicle production outlook for North America to 15.5 million units, reflecting vehicle timing and inventory correction impacts.

EV Market

Strong development of battery-electric vehicle (EV) sales remains an assumption in the longer-term light vehicle sales forecast.

BEV share of sales has been above eight percent in both June and July, progress from levels earlier in the year. In the immediate term, moderate month-to-month volatility is anticipated, according to S&P’s analysis of new registration data.

September EV share is expected to remain above eight percent once again assisted by the current roll outs of vehicles such as the Chevrolet Equinox EV and Honda Prologue to be followed by new EVs such as the Polestar 3, Jeep Wagoneer S and Volkswagen ID.

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