On a volume estimate of 1.42 million units, S&P Global Mobility is forecasting U.S. light vehicle sales in August to be up more than seven percent year-over-year and more than 11 percent from the month-prior level ahead of Labor Day weekend.
The report published Aug. 27 translates to a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 15.2 million units.
Chris Hopson, principal analyst at S&P Global Mobility, said new vehicle affordability remains the biggest obstacle preventing further advances in the pace of auto sales.
“The current environment of still-high interest rates and slow-to-recede vehicle prices are translating to still-high monthly payments and little progress for new vehicle demand levels,” state Hopson in a press statement with the release of the report.
S&P Projections
According to S&P forecasts, the total number of light vehicles purchased is expected to be 1.42 million, up from 1.27 million in July and 1.32 million in August 2023. Light trucks account for 12.4 million purchases, down from 12.8 million a month earlier but up from the 12.2 million at the same time last year.
For passenger cars, the 2.8 million sold declined from 3.0 million in July and 3.1 million last August.
S&P officials noted continued advances in inventories and incentives are expected over the remainder of the year—two levers necessary for affordability issues to ease and sales to progress.
“Analysis of July retail advertised inventory data in the U.S. finds that inventory declined compared to month-end June reporting, the first month-over-month drop since May 2023,” according to Matt Trommer, associate director, S&P Global Mobility. “Available retail advertised inventory at the end of July was up 52.5 percent compared to last year, but down 2.3 percent from June 2024.”
EV Overview
Strong development of electric vehicle (EV) sales remains an assumption in the longer term S&P Global Mobility light vehicle sales forecast. But in the immediate term, moderate month-to-month volatility is anticipated.
August EV share is expected to reach 8.1 percent, mirroring the the month-prior reading and continued advancement from the first three months of 2024.
Despite pullbacks by U.S. automakers such as Ford and GM, EV share is expected to progress over the next several months that continues the upward trend realized since April 2024. S&P officials pointed to the roll outs of vehicles such as the Chevrolet Equinox EV and Honda Prologue, followed by new EVs such as the Jeep Wagoneer S and Volkswagen ID. Buzz slated for release this calendar year.
