Sales volume in October is anticipated to jump 10 percent compared to the month previous and 7.9 percent higher then October 2023, with Cox Automotive officials saying the increase is primarily due to the differences in the number of selling days.
As for the bigger picture, October new-vehicle sales are expected to remain steady at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), or sales pace, of 15.8 million, unchanged from the sales pace in September.
Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox Automotive, observed the sales pace has been bouncing between 15-16 million for over 18 months, and October is expected to follow the same trend.
Increased Sale Days
“Neither tricks nor treats are expected from October new-vehicle sales,” said Chesbrough in a press statement released with the forecast.
The increased number of selling days is forecast to boost October’s new-vehicle sales figures as it has 27 selling days, two more than last year and four more than last month.
Continuing a trend from September, new-vehicle inventory and heightened incentives are key factors helping maintain steady sales volume. Throughout 2024, incentives for new-vehicle sales have been steadily increasing, with September reaching the highest level since early 2021, according to Kelley Blue Book.
Analysis, citing data from Cox Automotive’s vAuto Live Market View, noted new-vehicle listing prices have been gradually rising over the past few weeks. The average listing price for a new vehicle was $47,823, up 0.9 percent compared to last year.
Breakdown By Segment
All segments are projected for an increase to October from September, including four of the six in double figures. Mid-size SUV/Crossover and mid-size car have the largest percentage increase at 11.0 percent on sales of 195,000 and 80,000 respectively. And on mid-size cars, they are expected to rise 17.0 percent year over year.
Compact SUV/crossover is estimated to have the largest by volume at 220,000, representing a 10.3 percent increase. Full-size pickup truck sales are estimated at 185,000 (+10.5 percent) and compact cars 90,000 (+6.7 percent). For the Other Segments category, that is projected to rise 9.7 percent on volume of 540,000.
October Analysis
Chesbrough stated the expected sales gains for October comes despite a market that saw both headwinds and tailwinds.
“The recent extreme weather events in the Southeast have suppressed some business operations, which will cut into the sales total in October,” he said. “On the other hand, recent interest rate cuts and stock market gains have likely provided some market support.”
