Cox Automotive is projecting a double-digit dip in new-vehicle sales for September compared to the previous month and year.
New-vehicle sales in September are projected to tumble more than 16 percent from August and 11 percent from September 2023 according the projections released Sept 25. But the yearly projection paints a better picture—the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) is expected to rise to 15.9 million, up from August’s 15.1 million level and slightly higher than last September’s 15.8 million pace.
Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox Automotive, offered with the election season fully upon us and some promising signs economically, more volatility seems likely through the end of the year.
Chesbrough Commentary
“The September sales pace is expected to improve from a rather slow August, maintaining the trend of large swings we’ve witnessed this year,” said Chesbrough in a statement with the release of the figures. “However, the recent interest rate cut will help household finances, and automakers are being more aggressive with discounts, so we remain optimistic that new-vehicle sales could improve marginally through the final quarter of 2024.”
Healthy new-vehicle inventory and higher incentives are helping maintain sales. New-vehicle sales incentives have been increasing through 2024, with August incentives estimated by Kelley Blue Book to be at the highest level since the first half of 2021.
New-vehicle transaction prices have been under pressure as well, helping improve new-vehicle affordability. Both dynamics—higher incentive and continued price pressure—are expected to positively influence September’s sales volume.
Inside September’s Numbers
But the new-vehicle sales data will be influenced heavily by the large differences in the number of selling days. There are only 23 selling days this September, five fewer than August’s 28 days and three fewer than last September. Significant statistical adjustments help make comparisons more accurate, but they are still challenging.
By segment, compact cars were the only sector to report positive year-over-year growth, up 1.2 percent at 95,000 sold. The category with the largest decline from August was mid-size SUV/Crossover, down 17.5 percent to 190,000.
For the rest of the market, mid-size cars were down 22.5 percent from last September and 15.5 percent from a month earlier with 63,000 sold. Compact SUV/crossover is expected to have the largest number of new car sales, at 205,000—down 12.7 percent from a year ago and 16.2 percent from August.
Rounding out the sales for September compared to a month earlier are full-size pickup at 165,000 (-14.5 percent), and all other segments at 472,000 (-10.9 percent).
Third Quarter Projections
Cox officials third quarter sales to be lower by 2.1 percent year-over-year and lower compared to the second quarter of 2024—a decline driven by GM, Toyota and Stellantis. The full-year forecast for new-vehicle sales remains unchanged at 15.7 million, higher year-over-year by less than two percent.
GM tops the share of the market with 16.4 percent, followed by Toyota at 14.7 percent, Ford at 13.1 percent, Hyundai at 10.6 percent and Honda at 9.0 percent.
“Honda is expected to see even more growth this quarter, thanks to another strong quarter of CRV and Accord sales,” said Chesbrough. “So far this year, Honda has gained nearly one percent market share and has moved up into the Top 5 in U.S. sales among the major automakers, knocking Stellantis down to No. 6.”
Fleet Overview
While the overall new-vehicle market is forecast to be slightly higher year over year at the end of the third quarter, the gains have mostly been on the fleet and leasing sides of the business.
Retail purchases year-to-date in 2024 – vehicles bought with cash or via an auto loan and representing nearly 60 percent of all sales – are forecast to be lower by four percent compared to 2023. Fleet sales year to date in 2024 are tracking higher by about seven percent year-over-year, while leasing is higher by 24 percent—thanks in large part to strong electric vehicle (EV) and plug-in hybrid lease offers.
