December 2012 SAAR at 15.6M, Highest Since December 2007; Estimated Incentive Spending at $2,409; Industry Sales Highest Since March 2012
SANTA MONICA, Calif. —TrueCar.com, the authority on new car pricing information, trends and forecasting, today released its December 2012 sales and incentives forecast. The forecast shows the following:
- For December 2012, new light vehicle sales in the U.S. (including fleet) is expected to be 1,370,658 units, up 10.3 percent from December 2011 and up 19.9 percent from November 2012 (on an unadjusted basis)
- The December 2012 forecast translates into a Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (“SAAR”) of 15.6 million new car sales, up from 13.6 million in December 2011 and up from 15.5 million in November 2012
- Retail sales are up 9.2 percent compared to December 2011 and up 23.6 percent from November 2012
- Fleet and rental sales are expected to make up 16.5 percent of total industry sales in December 2012
- The industry average incentive spending per unit will be approximately $2,409 in December 2012, which represents a decrease of 9.0 percent from December 2011 and increase of 4.3 percent from November 2012
- Used car sales* are estimated to be 3,349,510, up 6.6 percent from December 2011 and up 13.0 percent from November 2012. The ratio of new to used is estimated to be 1:3 for December 2012
“December continues the trend of exceptional sales due to strong manufacturer incentives, specifically lease and finance deals, and the demand due to Hurricane Sandy in the Northeast,” said Jesse Toprak , senior analyst for TrueCar.com. “Even with the fiscal cliff still needing to be resolved, automakers can expect a strong year for new car sales in 2013.”
Forecasts for the top eight manufacturers for November 2012:
|Manufacturer||December 2012 Forecast||% Change vs.November 2012||% Change vs.December 2011|
|Manufacturer||December 2012 Forecast||November 2012||December 2011|
|Manufacturer||December 2012Incentives||% Change vs.November 2012||% Change vs.December 2011||Total Spending|
“This year, automakers were able to curb their incentive spending while still improving sales,” said Kristen Andersson , analyst for TrueCar.com. “The average incentive spending per unit for 2012 was at its lowest levels since 2002 when auto sales were at 16.8 million.”
TrueCar.com also projects sales down to the brand level, which can be viewed in its entirety at the Truth Blog on TrueCar.com. Brand level incentive spending forecasts are available upon request.
TrueCar.com bases its forecast on actual transaction data. The transaction data based forecast is refined by other current and historical factors that impact vehicle sales, including: sales, inventory, incentives, fuel prices, and macro economic data (major stock market indexes, consumer confidence, new home starts, and CPI). TrueCar.com does not adjust for selling days in year-over-year percentage change calculations.
*Used car sales figures include sales from franchise dealerships, independent dealerships and private party sales
TrueCar, Inc., headquartered in Santa Monica, Calif., with offices in Santa Barbara, Calif., San Francisco, Calif., and Austin, Texas, is an automotive pricing information and analysis company that creates a better buying experience for dealers and consumers. As an online publisher of unbiased new and used car transaction data, TrueCar.com provides price reports that empower dealers and consumers to agree on the parameters of a fair deal by supplying a transparent, simple understanding of what others recently paid for identically-equipped new cars in their geographic area. TrueCar also owns ALG, the benchmark for vehicle value information to the automotive industry and has been forecasting residual values for nearly 50 years in both the U.S. and Canadian markets.
TrueCar is a data-driven company that sources, compiles, and analyses car-buying information unlike anybody in the industry. This is why, since its founding in 2005, TrueCar dealer partners have sold over 600,000 vehicles across the country. Its national network of more than 5,200 Certified Dealers is committed to provide no-hassle pricing for some of the country’s largest membership and service organizations, including American Express, AAA, USAA and Consumer Reports that collectively represent more than one million monthly in-market customers.
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