Wholesale used-vehicle prices saw a slight decline in September, continuing a trend of elevated but moderating values, according to the latest Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) report. The index, which measures wholesale price movements independent of vehicle mix, mileage, and seasonality, dropped to 207.0, a 0.2 percent decrease from August.
Despite the monthly dip, the index remains 2.0 percent higher than a year ago, highlighting a market that continues to present affordability issues for cost-conscious buyers. The report also notes that while retail sales slowed toward the end of the third quarter, the wholesale market maintained relative strength.
“As we close the books on Q3, we’ve continued to see wholesale values remain elevated against normal depreciation trends, even with declines in September and right as tax incentives on EVs come to an end,” said Jeremy Robb, deputy chief economist for Cox Automotive. “Both new and used retail sales were fairly elevated over most of Q3, but we started to see some declines in the last few weeks of September. Simultaneously, we observed that weekly wholesale valuations declined a bit more than earlier in the month, as the relationship between supply on dealer lots and wholesale values remains strongly intertwined.”
The non-seasonally adjusted price for used vehicles actually increased by 0.1 percent in September compared to August. Unadjusted depreciation was less than the historical average for the month, which typically sees a 0.3 percent decline.
Market Segments and Powertrain Performance
Performance across major market segments was mixed. Compared to the same month last year, luxury vehicles saw a 2.3 percent increase in value, influenced heavily by the heavy activity in the electric vehicle (EV) market. SUVs also saw a modest year-over-year gain of 0.7 percent.
However, most other segments experienced declines. Wholesale prices for trucks were down 0.3 percent year-over-year, while mid-size sedans fell 0.6 percent. Compact cars saw the most significant drop, with values decreasing by 6.5 percent compared to September 2024.
EVs saw a peak in value driven by strong consumer demand ahead of the expiration of federal tax credits. EV wholesale values have appreciated 6.4 percent year-over-year. This marks the sixth consecutive month that EVs have shown higher year-over-year value gains than the broader market. In contrast, non-EV values rose by just 1.0 percent.
“Consumers kept the pace of new and used EV purchases high over the quarter, prior to the expiration of the tax incentive,” said Robb. “This heightened demand pushed EV wholesale values higher again this month, making EVs the strongest-performing segment in year-over-year value appreciation.”
Retail Sales and Consumer Confidence
On the retail side, initial estimates from vAuto indicate that used-vehicle sales were down 3.9 percent in September compared to August and down 2.0 percent year-over-year. The average days’ supply for used vehicles ended the month at 46, a slight increase from 44 days at the end of August.
New-vehicle sales, however, remained strong. The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) for September was 16.4 million, consistent with August’s robust pace and up 6.7 percent from last year.
Despite the strong sales, consumer confidence metrics showed a downturn in September. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell by 3.7 percent, with consumers’ views of both present and future economic conditions declining. The University of Michigan’s sentiment index also decreased by 5.3 percent, with consumers’ views on vehicle buying conditions hitting a four-month low due to negative perceptions of prices.
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