The first three months of new car sales is shaping up to be a winner.
Cox Automotive is forecasting U.S. new-vehicle sales for the first quarter of 2024 will increase 5.6% compared to last year, reaching 3.8 million units. The year-over-year increase suggests that the new-vehicle market in the U.S. continues to recover slowly from the 10-year low of 13.8 million total sales recorded in 2022, according to Cox officials.
Sales volume in March, historically one of the strongest sales months in a given year, expected to hit 1.45 million in sales, an increase of 4.5% year-over-year and close to the 10-year average for the month.
Sales Pace Rising
The March seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), or selling pace, is expected to finish near 15.5 million, 600,000 over last year’s pace but down slightly from February’s surprisingly strong 15.8 million level.
This March has 27 sales days, the same as last year but two more than last month. Through Q1, the SAAR is forecast at 15.4 million, up from 15.0 million, or a 2.7 percent increase, compared to Q1 2023.
“Since April 2023, the SAAR has experienced some large swings with an average at the mid-15 million level,” said Cox Automotive Senior Economist Charlie Chesbrough in a statement. “That sales pace is expected to continue this month as well.”
Breakdown by Segment
As by segment, compact SUV/crossover is expected to have the largest number of new car sales, at 265,000—15% up from last March. When it comes to the largest percentage from last year, mid-size SUV/crossover gained 17.7 percent from February with a total of 245,000 being sold in March.
Full-size pickup trucks (180,000) and compact cars (100,000) are project to have gains of 12.8 percent and 8.0 percent, respectively, from the previous month. Mid-size cars, the smallest segment, is projected to grow 12.7% from February to 85,000 new-vehicles sold,
Healthy sales are being supported by significantly improved new-vehicle inventory levels. At the beginning of March, the total supply of available new vehicles was up more than 50% compared to last March, according to the latest vAuto Live Market View data.
Chesbrough added the March weather was “unseasonably warm this year, which could give sales an extra boost.”