Wholesale vehicle prices saw a 0.5 percent decrease month over month in July according to the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index. The index fell to 207.4, a small drop from June but still 2.9 percent higher than in 2024. Seasonal adjustments changed the results a bit as there was a 1.4 percent non-adjusted price decrease in the month.
“Wholesale appreciation trends have continued to be a bit more volatile this year as tariffs have stirred demand in used markets for customers worried about price increases,” said Jeremy Robb, senior director of Economic and Industry Insights at Cox Automotive. “The Manheim index has spent the last five months bouncing higher or lower against the previous read, as price changes are felt more acutely with lower levels of inventory on the ground.”
Market Insights
The Manheim Market Report also saw small declines at the start of the month but ended July with a 0.1 percent increase in the final week. Tight inventory conditions have muted price depreciation in the Three-Year-Old Index, with a decrease of just 0.3 percent in July, half of the usual decline for this time of year.
While the total used car market saw a small month-over-month price decline in July, the year-over-year metrics are still elevated. Luxury vehicles were the highest non-EV segment, posting a 6.8 percent increase, marking the sixth consecutive month where luxury cars have the highest year-over-year gains. SUVs were also higher by 2.3 percent. Conversely, compact cars suffered a 4.4 percent decline, the largest among major market segments by a large margin. Trucks experienced more stability, inching up just 0.4 percent year over year. Month over month, most segments had small declines, except trucks which gained 0.2 percent.
Used electric vehicles (EVs) continued their price momentum, registering an 8.3 percent year-over-year increase in value for July. This growth is partly attributed to low valuation levels in 2024, when EV prices faced steep drops. Despite the strong annual performance, EVs declined 0.7 percent month-over-month, slightly more than the 0.1 percent price increase seen in non-EVs for the same period.
Retail Sales and Inventory Levels
The retail market demonstrated resilience are a small slowdown in June, with used-vehicle sales in July increasing by 1.7 percent month over month and 2 percent year over year. However, inventory levels remain constrained, with used-vehicle retail supply ending the month at 46 days, slightly lower than June’s 47 days and July 2024’s 48 days.
New-vehicle sales also showed positive momentum, climbing 6.6 percent year over year in July and 9.3 percent month-over-month. The seasonally adjusted annual rate reached 16.4 million in July, reflecting stable demand for now despite the creeping pressure of tariffs price increases.
However, consumer sentiment, though slightly improved in July, continues to reflect caution. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index rose by 2.1 percent, recovering some of June’s decline. Plans to purchase a vehicle within six months hit a three-month low though, suggesting that despite solid sales numbers in July, there is still lingering market hesitancy.
“We are starting to see some of the new Model Year 2026 vehicles, and as that mix grows, we will get a better hint of the increases car makers are trying to pass along to consumers,” said Robb. “But both new and used retail sales have remained relatively healthy, and when you couple that with tighter inventory levels at Manheim, we generally have pretty solid demand at the auction.”
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