The forecast from Cox Automotive released just before the Labor Day holiday had U.S. new-vehicle sales in August remaining relatively stable.
In August, the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), or sales pace, is expected to reach 15.4 million, higher than August’s 2023 15.3 million pace but down notably from July’s 15.8 million level, in part fueled by a sales rebound following the CDK Global ransomware attack that slowed the market in June.
Sales volume in August, which will include deals completed during the unofficial end of summer three day weekend, is expected to rise more than eight percent from last year and 12 percent from July when the final tally comes out later this month.
August High Point
Cox officials noted August could potentially be the month with the highest sales volume of the year so far. However, significant seasonal adjustments are necessary to compare the market selling pace: This August has 28 selling days, three more than last month and one more than last year. August sales data will also include five weekends versus four last year.
“The August new-vehicle sales pace is expected to finish within the 15 to 16 million range as monthly sales have for nearly the last two years,” said Cox Automotive senior economist Charlie Chesbrough in a press statement.
Sector Breakdown
Each sector is expected to have growth month-over-month and year-over year. With 75,000 mid-size cars expected to be sold, it would be 2.2 percent increase from last year and 15.9% from July. The compact car sector is forecast to have 110,000 sold, up 10.8 percent from the same time in 2024 and 10.1 percent from July.
Compact SUV/crossover is projected to have the most cars sold at 235,000—up 5.4 from August 2023 and 14.2 percent from July. Mid-size SUV/Crossover is slated to have 225,000 sold, up 7.7 percent from a year earlier and 14.2 percent from a month earlier.
Full-size pickup trucks are on pace to sell 205,000 in August, up 7.7 percent from last year and 12.9 percent from July. Other segments, with 595,000 sold, gained 9.7 percent from August 2023 and 10.1 percent from a month earlier.
Deals to be Had
“This monthly report will also benefit from 28 selling days, more than any other month this year, and the long holiday weekend, so higher volume is expected,” said Chesbrough.
Following the software outages in June and recovery in July, new-vehicle inventory was expected to normalize throughout August, according to analysts. As model year 2025 vehicles hit the market, several automakers reported that 40 percent or more of their current inventory on dealer lots consisted of MY25 vehicles.
Looking to ease that inventory, various financing deals are being offered, including options for zero percent financing and up to $10,000 in customer bonuses for buyers choosing a new 2024 model. The improved incentives and healthy inventory should support higher sales volume in August.
“Historically, the Labor Day timeframe has been one of the larger sales promotion periods for the industry – and that should boost volume this year,” commented Chesbrough.
