New-vehicle sales in June are expected to increase from last month, according to the latest forecast from Cox Automotive.
In June, the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) is projected to finish near 16.0 million, down slightly from last June’s 16.1 million level but an uptick from last month’s 15.9 million. Cox officials note the mild improvement over last year is happening despite high prices and interest rates.
New-vehicle sales volume through the first half of 2024 is forecast to increase by nearly 225,000 units compared to the first half of 2023 — an increase of 2.9 percent, according to Cox Automotive’s Kelley Blue Book estimates. The sales pace through the first half is expected to be 15.6 million, up from 15.4 million in the first half of 2023.
Incentives Lower Prices
Sales have been relatively strong over the last few months thanks in large part to lower prices, noted Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox Automotive.
“Incentives are rising, which are helping vehicle buyers, but only somewhat. The expectation of falling prices coupled with rising uncertainty around interest rate policies may lead some vehicle buyers to wait,” said Chesbrough is a press statement.
Despite things trending positively for the first six months of 2024, Cox Automotive is not changing its full-year new-vehicle sales forecast steady of 15.7 million—which would be a gain 1.3 percent (or 200,000 sales) from 2023.
“We remain concerned that the second half of the year cannot maintain the growth we’ve seen so far,” said Chesbrough.
Uncertainty Ahead
Fleet sales are forecast to finish the year at 2.9 million, up from 2.8 million in 2023. Full-year retail sales are forecast to increase from 12.8 million in 2024 to 12.7 million in 2023.
Chesbrough observed besides economic concerns, “many consumers likely believe things will be better, or at least more certain, after the November election, which adds to the hesitancy in buying.”
“We still expect 2024 to finish a little better than 2023 – supported by more discounting and better prices. But we will be fighting an uncertain economic outlook,” he said.
GM Reigns Supreme
General Motors is forecast to remain the top automaker in U.S. new-vehicle sales through the first half of 2024, selling 16.2 percent—697,804— of new-vehicles in 2024. That number is down 0.1 percent compared to the first half of 2023.
Toyota remains No. 2 after delivering a 16.3 percent first-half year-over-year gain. Ford and Hyundai are on track to remain the No. 3 and No. 4 automakers, respectively.
Cox officials pointed out that Honda Motor Company—combined Honda and Acura brand sales— is forecast to move ahead of Stellantis as the fifth largest automaker by sales. With stronger inventory and popular new models, Honda is expected to post a 10.8% volume increase in the first half, compared to a 16.5% decrease for Stellantis in the same period.
In a quarter-by-quarter comparison, Volkswagen recorded the biggest percentage growth from Q2 2023. With a total of 174,748 new-vehicles estimated to be sold in April, May and June, VW’s sales rose 15.4 percent.
Segment Breakdown
By segment, compact SUV/crossover is expected to have the largest number of new car sales, at 235,000—up 4.4 percent from a year ago but down 3.8 percent from May. The only category that reported double-digit gains from last year were compact cars, up 11.4 percent from May 2023.
Mid-size cars are estimated to decline the most compared to a year ago—down 10 percent with 75,000 new vehicles sold. Rounding out the sales for May are full-size pickup trucks at 190,000 (-3.1 percent from May 2023), mid-size SUV/crossover at 225,000 (+1.3 percent) and all other segments at 558,000 (-0.1 percent).