The winter chill that cooled used car prices in January is beginning to thaw, with the latest data from the Carfax Used Car Index signaling a shift in the market. As Americans start receiving their tax refunds, demand is ticking upward, driving price increases across several key vehicle segments. The seasonal bump is more pronounced this year, fueled by legislative changes that have put more cash in the pockets of potential buyers.
According to the March 2026 index, while some segments remain flat or saw minor dips, significant categories are seeing price hikes that suggest the spring buying season has arrived early. The driving force behind this resurgence appears to be the beginning of a robust tax season. The average federal tax return is higher this year compared to 2025, largely due to provisions in the tax bill passed by Congress last year.
The most impactful change was the increased Standard Deduction, which increased by as much as $1,500 depending on filing status. This caused many taxpayers to overpay throughout the year, leading to larger refunds—estimated by some to be up to $1,000 higher than last year. This influx of disposable income is flowing directly into the automotive market, lifting demand and, consequently, prices.
Minivans and EVs Lead the Charge
The most dramatic movement in the national data was seen in the Van & Minivan segment. Often the unsung heroes of the family haulers, used minivans saw their average prices jump by nearly $600 in February. Hybrids and Electric Vehicles (EVs) also bucked the recent trend of depreciation. Prices for used models in these green categories climbed by more than $200.
Luxury SUVs also saw gains, with average prices rising $300 over the previous month. Conversely, traditional sedans and pickup trucks saw minor price decreases. Used cars (sedans, hatchbacks, wagons) dropped by just over $100, while used pickup trucks dipped by more than $75.
Regional Variations Tell a Deeper Story
While national averages provide a broad view, the Carfax always reveals distinct regional narratives. In the Mid-Atlantic, prices rose across the board for all segments, led by Luxury SUVs which jumped by about $540.
The Midwest and Southeast mirrored the national enthusiasm for family transport. In the Southeast, used Vans & Minivans skyrocketed by more than $800, while the Midwest saw a nearly $400 increase in the same category.
The Plains region saw a unique spike in high-end purchases, with used Luxury Cars jumping by more than $900—the most significant single-segment increase in any region. In contrast, the West Coast remains the stronghold for green vehicles; used Hybrids & EVs in the region saw prices jump by more than $600, while pickup trucks there fell by nearly $400.
Strategic Timing for Buyers and Sellers
For consumers, prices remain high by historical standards, but the uptick in trade-in values offers a silver lining for current owners looking to upgrade.
As the spring market gains momentum, the window for snagging a winter bargain is closing. Buyers in regions like the Northeast, where Luxury Car prices dropped by almost $500, might still find deals, but for those eyeing a minivan or an EV, the tax-season surge is already underway.
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