As businesses navigate the start of 2026, future risk assessment remains fairly muddy. Physical security threats are stagnating rather than declining, and economic uncertainty is fueling anxiety about crime. According to the State of Physical Security Entering 2026 report released today by Pro-Vigil, 88 percent of business leaders report that physical security incidents either increased or remained steady over the last year. This persistence of risk, coupled with fears regarding inflation and tariffs, means that for many organizations, protecting important assets is becoming a more volatile challenge.
The sixth annual report, which surveyed leaders across industries including construction, retail, dealerships, and manufacturing, highlights a disconnect between the perception of risk and the implementation of modern solutions. While optimism about technologies like Artificial Intelligence (AI) is surging, actual adoption remains sluggish, leaving many businesses vulnerable to the very economic pressures they fear most.
The Stagnation of Security
For the vast majority of businesses surveyed, the security landscape has not improved. The survey reveals that 76 percent of respondents saw incident levels stay the same in 2025, while 12 percent experienced an increase. Only 12 percent reported a decrease in security events—a marginal improvement from the nine percent reported the previous year, but hardly a signal of victory.
When incidents do occur, the financial and operational toll is shifting. In a notable departure from 2024, when project delays were the primary concern, respondents in this year’s survey cited damage to assets (27%) as the single biggest impact of security breaches. This was followed by impact to inventory (21%) and project delays (18%). Less tangible but still damaging effects included hits to cash flow (8%) and customer service (7%). This shift suggests that criminals may be becoming more destructive or targeted in their approach, moving from general disruption to direct asset compromise.
The Economy as a Driver of Crime
Perhaps the most striking finding in the 2026 report is the heavy shadow cast by the broader economy. Nearly half of all respondents (46%) expressed fear that economic uncertainty will negatively impact their physical security in the coming year.
When asked what factors are driving security incidents, respondents pointed directly to the macroeconomic environment. Rising local crime (20%) and the general state of the economy (16%) were identified as the top two culprits. However, the survey dug deeper into specific economic anxieties: 22 percent of leaders cited inflation as their top concern regarding security, followed by unemployment (15%) and tariffs (14%).
It appears that these respondents are bracing for an increase in crime driven by desperation. As costs rise and economic stability wavers, the perceived threat level to physical assets—construction sites, inventory lots, and retail storefronts—begins to rise in tandem.
The AI Paradox: Belief Outpaces Action
Awareness and confidence in AI tools are skyrocketing, yet implementation lags significantly behind.
The survey found that 61 percent of respondents now believe AI can be a useful tool in stopping physical security incidents—a massive 25 percent jump from 2024. Despite this vote of confidence, actual adoption is inching forward slowly. Only 15 percent of businesses report utilizing AI in their security strategy, though this is still double the seven percent adoption rate seen the previous year.
A significant portion of the market remains in the dark or on the sidelines: 60 percent of respondents explicitly stated they do not use AI, and a further 25 percent admitted they simply didn’t know if their systems even utilize the technology. This gap can be a critical vulnerability, as modern AI-enabled solutions offer proactive crime deterrence capabilities that traditional “record and store” cameras lack.
Resistance to Change
Why are businesses slow to modernize their defenses despite rising fears? The report uncovers that for most, it’s just simple complacency. When asked why they hadn’t changed their security strategy, the top reason given (37%) was that they “haven’t experienced enough incidents to mandate a change.” Another 25 percent stated they were simply “confident that we are secure.”
Interestingly, financial constraints were less of a barrier than mindset. Only seven percent cited a lack of resources, and a mere four percent mentioned the need to control business costs. However, five percent of respondents admitted they rely on insurance coverage for losses related to theft and vandalism—a reactive strategy that does little to prevent the operational disruption of a crime.
Surveillance Trends and Future Outlook
For those who are actively investing in physical security, video remains king. Installing video surveillance cameras was the most common strategy change in 2025 (36%), far outpacing fences (12%) or alarm systems (9%). Furthermore, the utility of these systems is expanding beyond security. For the sixth consecutive year, monitoring worksite conditions was the top non-security use case for surveillance (42%), followed by monitoring foot traffic (30%) and liability incidents (29%).
As 2026 begins, the mood remains one of wary anticipation. While the number of leaders “more worried about crime than a year ago” has dropped slightly to 45 percent, a majority (52%) still expect physical security incidents to increase in the coming year.
Pro-Vigil’s report serves as an interesting snapshot of business owners heading into the new year. With economic stressors potentially acting as a catalyst for local crime, and with “damage to assets” rising as a primary consequence, the “wait and see” approach adopted by many businesses may prove costly. The tools to mitigate these risks exist but bridging the gap between believing in their efficacy and actually deploying them remains the industry’s most pressing challenge.
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