The auto dealer industry enters 2026 with strong sales tailwinds, but also with a more sophisticated threat landscape. After a year of economic uncertainty and rising new car prices, which reached an average all-time high of $50,000 in September, three physical security trends in the industry stand out as especially critical for dealership leaders to keep track of and plan around in the year ahead:
1. Parts Theft Will Push Dealers to Secure Service Bays Like Sales Lots
The risk is not limited to the front line of new gleaming vehicles. Service departments and parts storage (packed with electronics, wheels, sensors, airbags and catalytic converters) are becoming equally attractive to savvy criminals who know those pieces’ value.
Given persistent theft, experts aren’t ready to stop sounding the alarm bells. Indeed, crime rings know the value of catalytic converters which can be resold to flip a quick profit.
For dealerships, that means service bays, fenced storage, and tire/rim cages can no longer be treated as secondary risks. Expect 2026 security strategies to:
- Extend AI-powered remote monitoring cameras and analytics inside service lanes and parts rooms, not just to exterior lots
- Tighten access control for after-hours vendors and staff
- Use license plate recognition (LPR) at service entries to correlate vehicles, work orders, and incidents
- Rely on continuous, high-definition footage to resolve damage disputes and false claims as well as theft
This increased tendency toward layered security is what helps create a holistic approach to inventory protection. And it’s what the future of dealership physical security is going to look like. The only difference is how quickly people adopt, and how quickly criminals take notice of those who lag behind.
2. Vehicle Theft Will Persist as an Issue, Fueling the Shift to AI-powered Monitoring
850,000 cars were stolen in 2024 alone, on the heels of 2023’s record-breaking number of vehicle thefts.
With this in mind, many metro areas continue to grapple with theft targeting lots and high-value inventory.
For dealerships, that means 2026 is less about returning to “normal” and more about operating in a continued higher-risk environment amid ongoing economic uncertainty. On open lots packed with brand-new vehicles, traditional CCTV, basic alarms, or even on-site guards can provide evidence after the fact but rarely prevent the crime itself.
That’s why more dealer groups are moving toward AI-enabled remote video monitoring (RVM) systems that use analytics to distinguish people from background motion, detect loitering around gates or key boxes, and trigger or escalate live audio warnings and rapid response.
In 2026, expect more dealerships to treat proactive monitoring as core infrastructure with a real return on investment (ROI), not a tangential expense.
3. Insurance Pressure Will Fuel Physical Security Modernization
The insurance backdrop is another reason security will move up the dealership agenda in 2026.
Commercial insurance pricing in the U.S. rose about 5–10% year-over-year in 2024, with commercial auto seeing some of the steepest increases. The exposed nature of vehicle lots doesn’t help the liability insurance providers see there.
Industry analysis shows commercial auto liability tends to post underwriting losses. Put simply: carriers are paying out more in claims and defense costs than they collect in premiums.
That dynamic is already prompting tighter underwriting, higher deductibles, and closer scrutiny of loss-control practices for auto-adjacent risks. In 2026, dealerships should prepare for more direct questions from insurers about:
- After-hours security measures and monitoring coverage
- Documented deterrence events and incident response times
- Evidence that cameras are actively monitored, not just recording
Positioning AI-backed RVM and detailed incident reporting as tools that can both deter crime and demonstrate “insurability” gives risk managers and carrier partners tangible proof of reduced exposure.
The connection between security investment and premium relief will become more explicit, and more necessary, in the years to come.
The Year Ahead
In short, 2026 will reward auto retailers that treat physical security as an operational discipline, not just an added business expense. The dealerships that pair AI-driven remote monitoring, active deterrence, and layered security strategies will be better positioned to protect inventory, control insurance costs, and keep service and sales running smoothly in a more complex risk environment.
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