New-vehicle sales are projected to be better than expected for February.
Cox Automotive is projecting when numbers are announced next week it will show gains over last year and improvement from January, which came in slower than expected.
Sales volume for February is expected to reach 1.22 million units, an increase of 6.3% over February 2023, when the market was still recovering from severe product shortages.
The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), or selling pace, is expected to finish near 15.4 million, up 0.5 million over last year’s pace and an improvement over January’s surprisingly low 15.0 million level.
Weathering the Storms
Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox Automotive, said while the first two months of any new year are historically slow for vehicle sales, the new-vehicle sales pace this past January saw a surprising decline from December. But weather issues he believes played a key role in the February jump.
“Bad weather was a likely contributor and kept shoppers away from dealership lots,” said Chesbrough in a press statement. “However, the weather this February was particularly mild across much of the country, so a bit of a rebound is expected this month.”
The SAAR has averaged 15.5 million over the last six months, and the expectation is that sales this month will return closer to that trend after falling off in January. There are also 25 selling days this February, one more than last year, which will also lift February’s sales totals.
Sales by Category
“We are also seeing solid inventory levels and growing incentives and discounts, which should help sales volume,” added Chesbrough.
By segment, compact SUV/crossover is projected to have the most sold at approximately 210,000. The largest increase in year-over-year is compact cars at 16.2% with 85,000 unites projected to be sold in February.
Meanwhile, full-size pickup truck had the biggest month-to-month percentage gain at 17.5%, with a total of 170,00 expected to leave lots this February.