SANTA MONICA, Calif. — TrueCar.com, the authority on new car pricing, trends and forecasting, today released its June 2012 sales and incentives forecast. The forecast shows the following:
- For June 2012, new light vehicle sales in the U.S. (including fleet) is expected to be 1,242,301 units, up 18.1 percent from June 2011 and down 6.9 percent from May 2012 (on an unadjusted basis)
- The June 2012 forecast translates into a Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (SAAR) of 13.6 million new car sales, up from 11.5 million in June 2011 and down from 13.8 million in May 2012
- Retail sales are up 15.7 percent compared to June 2011 and down 6.9 percent from May 2012
- Fleet and rental sales are expected to make up 20.5 percent of total industry sales in June 2012
- The industry average incentive spending per unit will be approximately $2,432 in June 2012, which represents an increase of 1.5 percent from June 2011 and decrease of 4.8 percent from May 2012
- Used car sales* are estimated to be 4,774,707, up 6.3 percent from June 2011 and up 10.8 percent from May 2012. The ratio of new to used is estimated to be 1:4 for June 2012
“The remarkable recovery of Toyota and Honda continued in June,” said Jesse Toprak, Vice President of Market Intelligence for TrueCar.com. “Uncertainty in the financial markets brought selling rates below 14 million units for the second month in a row. Despite the relative slow down in the last few weeks, the first half sales results this year indicate a relatively healthy car industry; perhaps the brightest spot in an otherwise struggling U.S. economy. We expect second half of 2012 to average around 14.5 million units, which will take us to over 15 million new cars sold in 2013.
Forecasts for the top eight manufacturers for June 2012:
| Unit Sales | |||
| Manufacturer | June 2012 Forecast | % Change vs. May 2012 | % Change vs. June 2011 |
| Chrysler | 139,629 | -6.9% | 16.0% |
| Ford | 194,030 | -10.0% | 0.3% |
| GM | 228,242 | -6.9% | 6.0% |
| Honda | 126,427 | -5.6% | 50.7% |
| Hyundai/Kia | 105,172 | -11.5% | 0.9% |
| Nissan | 88,956 | -3.1% | 23.7% |
| Toyota | 186,217 | -8.3% | 67.9% |
| Volkswagen | 48,359 | -3.6% | 25.6% |
| Industry | 1,242,301 | -6.9% | 18.1% |
| Market Share | |||
| Manufacturer | June 2012 Forecast | May 2012 | June 2011 |
| Chrysler | 10.9% | 10.9% | 11.3% |
| Ford | 15.6% | 16.2% | 18.4% |
| GM | 18.4% | 18.4% | 20.5% |
| Honda | 10.2% | 10.0% | 8.0% |
| Hyundai/Kia | 8.5% | 8.9% | 9.9% |
| Nissan | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.8% |
| Toyota | 15.0% | 15.2% | 10.5% |
| Volkswagen | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.0% |
| Incentive Spending | ||||
| Manufacturer | June 2012 Incentives |
% Change vs. May 2012 | % Change vs. June 2011 | Total Spending |
| Chrysler | $3,192 | 2.8% | 4.7% | $445,670,305 |
| Ford | $2,489 | -6.1% | -5.8% | $483,016,356 |
| GM | $3,014 | -10.5% | 2.3% | $687,934,932 |
| Honda | $2,314 | -1.6% | 31.0% | $292,568,128 |
| Hyundai/Kia | $1,253 | 0.9% | -8.2% | $131,769,746 |
| Nissan | $2,645 | -4.4% | 19.5% | $235,320,792 |
| Toyota | $1,699 | -13.7% | -10.2% | $316,418,922 |
| Volkswagen | $2,485 | -2.9% | 22.1% | $120,194,078 |
| Industry | $2,432 | -4.8% | 1.5% | $3,021,425,152 |
“Average incentive spending for all automakers will hit its lowest levels this month since last year in the months following the natural disasters in Japan and prior to that since January 2007,” said Kristen Andersson, Senior Analyst at TrueCar.com. “Toyota will post strong retail sales this month while decreasing incentive spending as consumers continue to snap up the popular Camry, Corolla, and Prius.”
TrueCar.com also projects sales down to the brand level, which can be viewed in its entirety at the Truth Blog on TrueCar.com. Brand level incentive spending forecasts are available upon request.
TrueCar.com bases its forecast on actual transaction data. The transaction data based forecast is refined by other current and historical factors that impact vehicle sales, including: sales, inventory, incentives, fuel prices, and macro economic data (major stock market indexes, consumer confidence, new home starts, and CPI). TrueCar.com does not adjust for selling days in year-over-year percentage change calculations.
*Used car sales figures include sales from franchise dealerships, independent dealerships and private party sales
About TrueCar, Inc.
TrueCar, Inc. is an automotive solutions provider focused on changing how cars are sold by providing a significantly better customer experience while helping qualified dealer partners to gain incremental market share and reduce costs. TrueCar is a visual publisher of new car transaction data. TrueCar price reports help both dealers and consumers to agree on the parameters of a fair deal by providing an accurate, comprehensive and simple understanding of what others actually paid recently for an identically-equipped vehicle both locally and nationally. TrueCar works with a national network of dealers that provide a no-hassle car buying experience, and in many cases a highly competitive upfront price, to assist some of the nation’s largest and most well respected membership and service organizations to meet the auto buying needs of their members and customers. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa Monica, CA and has offices in San Francisco, CA and Austin, TX. With 131 percent annual growth since 2006, TrueCar has connected hundreds of thousands of consumers with dealers nationwide resulting in the sale of over 400,000 vehicles and is developing a suite of products and services centered on radical clarity through the comprehensive analysis of market data and information.
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SOURCE TrueCar.com
