Wholesale used-vehicle prices were up 1.6 percent for the 15 days of November, according to data from the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index.
The mid-month index sat increased to 206.1, rising 0.5 percent from the full month of November 2023. The non-adjusted price change in the first half of November rose 0.2 percent compared to October, and the unadjusted price was down only 0.6 percent year over year.
According to Cox Automotive analysis, the average move for the month of November is a decrease of 0.4 percent for seasonally adjusted values, showing the mid-month change has much less depreciation than usual.
Cox Comments
“Supply for both wholesale and retail used-vehicle markets has continued to decline over the last month,” said Jeremy Robb, senior director of economic and insights at Cox Automotive, in a press statement with the release of the data. “With sales conversion moving higher for six weeks in a row, it’s not surprising to see strength in wholesale prices in early November.”
“Typically, November shows relatively small declines in values month to month; but so far, we’ve seen prices increase for both seasonally adjusted values as well as non-seasonally adjusted prices.”
Over the first two weeks of November, the Manheim Market Report (MMR) prices in the Three-Year-Old Index declined an aggregate of 0.3 percent as compared to the historical decline of 1.0 percent for this time period. MMR Retention, the average difference in price relative to current MMR, averaged 99.4 percent, indicating that valuation models have moved closer to market prices early in November. MMR Retention is up four-tenths of a point compared to the prior year at the beginning of November.
Historical Conversion Comparison
Additionally, the average daily sales conversion rate of 59.9 percent, rising by over three points from October 2024, indicating that buying demand has strengthened over the first half of November. And the current rate is almost 10 points higher then November 2019 daily average of 50.8 percent.
Robb noted that “retail used-vehicle sales have increased for five consecutive weeks as well, and that should keep dealer demand for wholesale units elevated in coming weeks.”
Comparing results against the end of October, each segment displayed a rise in values. The overall industry rose by 1.6 percent, with leading the sectors at 1.7 percent. Mid-size cars and the luxury segments rose 1.6 percent, compacts 1.2 percent, and pickup trucks 0.9 percent.
EV Issues
But the year-over-year comparison is a mixed bag. Compared to the industry’s year-over-year increase of 0.5 percent, mid-size cars rose by 1.0 percent, and SUVs showed no change over the period. The other major segments fell more than the industry overall, with compact cars decreasing 0.3 percent, luxury 1.5 percent, and pickup 2.0 percent from a year ago.
The struggles for electric vehicles (EVs) continued as depreciation levels dropped 11.0 percent from November 2023. Against October values, EVs did increase by 0.6 percent in the first half of November.
Consumers Feeling Better
The initial November reading on Consumer Sentiment from the University of Michigan increased by 3.5 percent to 73.0, which was stronger than expected and left the index up 19 percent year over year.
Consumers’ views of buying conditions for vehicles improved slightly as both views of prices and interest rates improved. The daily index of consumer sentiment from Morning Consult has increased by 4.5 percent through Nov. 15, leaving the index up 14.5 percent year over year. It increased by 1.4 percent in October, extending a four-month upward trend.
The average price of unleaded gasoline declined by 1.4 percent to $3.08 per gallon as of Nov. 15, which was down 8.0 percent year over year.
